I rarely talk about one issue on China and since so many people are asking and writing about it I will talk about but also explain why I don't talk about it and advise you on what I think is an appropriate framework to approach it.

News reports have come out that Xi will be out soon. Lean in and listen close because here is what you should know: nobody in the US and definitely not at any news papers knows and almost no one in China knows. Could it be true? Yes. Is it most likely untrue? Also...yes. The key take away being: nobody here knows.

These rumors about Xi have been floating around for a few months and I would say some of the things I've seen seem to have some degree of validity (for instance, visual evidence of Xi health problems). Does this mean he will deposed in a bloodless silent coup or that he was taking some time out of the public eye to recover from surgery? Anything is possible but what is the highest probability answer? Taking some time out of the public eye to recover from surgery.

Journalist from a major publication who covered Beijing for quite some time once over coffee told me bluntly "nobody has sources in Beijing. We're just guessing like the rest of you." I would take it one step further in that the very small number of journos who claim to have "sources" are clearly you as an outlet for CCP PR so even claiming sources doesn't make you anymore reliable for what truth is.

I have a special level of disrespect for Chinese "political analysts" or professors. They don't know anything. Guessing is the politest word I can apply to people like that whose only job is to make Ouija diviners, crystal ball soothe sayers, and economists seem down right respectable pure lovers of science. They are literally trying to make pronouncements on who will rule China based upon what shoes Xi is wearing and where he meets foreign heads of state.

Personally, is it plausible Xi rules China for another two decades? Yea. Is it plausible he doesn't wake up tomorrow? Also plausible. Anyone telling you they know is selling you something less reliable than crystal ball political analysis