NEW: Kremlin insider statements continue to indicate that 1) Putin remains committed to his strategy that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition against Ukraine and the West, and 2) that the West has thus far failed to convince Putin to reevaluate his strategy. ⬇️(1/3)

Bloomberg reported on September 20 that undisclosed people close to the Kremlin stated that Putin has concluded that military escalation is the best way for Russia to force Ukraine into peace negotiations on Putin’s terms.

The sources stated that Putin assesses that US President Donald Trump is unlikely to “do much” to bolster Ukraine’s defense and that the US-Russian talks in Alaska on August 15, 2025, convinced Putin that Trump has no interest in intervening in the war in Ukraine.

The sources stated that Putin intends to remain engaged in any ongoing bilateral dialogue with the United States but will continue to act in what he perceives to be Russia’s interest.

The sources stated that Putin intends to continue targeting Ukraine’s energy network and other critical infrastructure.

Putin’s long-standing theory of victory posits that Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine by indefinitely maintaining the theater-wide initiative and outlasting Western military support for Ukraine.

The sources’ statements indicate that recent US efforts to mediate a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine have not impacted Putin’s calculus and that Putin remains committed to defeating Ukraine militarily, as ISW has continued to assess.

Putin’s recent actions — including the decision to redeploy more forces to Donetsk Oblast and recent Russian incursions into the airspace of NATO member states — further underscore his commitment to both continued military aggression against Ukraine and future military aggression against NATO member states.

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