The US military strikes on Venezuela and extraction of Maduro seem to have stunned China, especially if you compare it to Beijing's reaction to last July's Iran strike.

MOFA today says Beijing is "deeply shocked" (深表震惊), which per a quick search is a very rare term used only for assassinations, terrorism, and mass casualty events.

MOFA also says the US has seriously violated Venezuela’s sovereignty and threatened peace and security in Latin America and the Caribbean.

And I think there's no way Beijing knew about the attacks if it sent its LatAm special representative to Caracas just before it happened—too risk-averse!

The MOFA reaction after the US strike on Iran last June was more muted: standard language (for Beijing!) of "strong condemnation" (强烈谴责) and no mention of Iranian sovereignty or a broader US regional threat.

We'll see how Beijing's reaction evolves. This US action seems to be registering in a big way, and will resonate with Xi's well-known suspicion of Western-backed "color revolutions" around the world, feeding into his heightened national security focus.

That said, I doubt Beijing will respond militarily or make a sudden move involving Taiwan, especially as Xi still wants a deal with Trump to reduce US economic threats and buy time for tech self-reliance. And Beijing will want a clear contrast with Washington to trumpet its claims to stand for peace, development, and moral leadership.

Xi does not care about Venezuela more than he cares about China. He'll be hoping that it turns into a quagmire for the United States.

点击图片查看原图

点击图片查看原图