China’s favorite geopolitical “prophet” is at it again with her take on Iran.

In her latest video, Chinese military scholar Li Li, a defense professor at the PLA National Defense University and frequent CCTV military commentator, claims that despite internal unrest in Iran, foreign troop movements, and warnings from the United States, none pose a real threat to the Iranian regime. She argues the U.S. is too distracted to intervene, and that Israel could only conduct limited air strikes rather than ground operations, and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is cohesive and fully capable of stabilizing the country, meaning no political crisis is likely.

For context on her predictive record: during the 2025 Israel-Iran clashes, she publicly said “if the U.S. dared to strike Iran, Iran would destroy Israel in half an hour,” a prediction that did not materialize and was widely noted for missing the mark. Shejas also been mocked domestically for confidently asserting the U.S. “dared not” act against other governments, only to see rapid developments unfold otherwise.

The issue is her track record.

Time and again when she declares “no threat,” events unfold in the opposite direction. Especially the latest when Maduro was captured, she was saying F35 could not penetrate Venezuela airspace due to JY 27.

When she says “fully under control,” instability follows.

At this point, her analysis functions less as prediction — and more as a reverse signal.

When Beijing’s experts sound most confident, history suggests it’s time to pay closer attention.

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