Battlefield realities as of late February 2026 show that continued significant Russian battlefield gains, let alone total victory, are not inevitable. 🧵(1/3)

Ukrainian forces have recently made the most significant gains on the battlefield since Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024 and liberated the most territory in Ukraine itself since the 2023 counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces began a series of counterattacks in the area of Kupyansk in mid-December 2025 that stabilized Ukrainian control over the town of Kupyansk and retook at least 183 square kilometers between December 11 and 25, pushing Russian forces out of several settlements near the town. Ukraine has held its gains in Kupyansk since mid-December despite Russian efforts to reverse them, and current battlefield dynamics do not suggest that Russia will quickly regain land in the area. Ukrainian forces also began limited counterattacks in early February 2026 that liberated multiple settlements in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.

ISW has observed evidence to assess that Ukrainian forces have liberated roughly 200 square kilometers in some areas of the Novopavlivka, Oleksandrivka, and Hulyaipole directions, losing 35 square kilometers in other areas of those three directions during the same time frame for a net gain of 165 square kilometers in February. Ukrainian forces continue limited counterattacks in these areas.

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