Will there be a parade on Moscow’s Red Square this year? If not, it would be a real humiliation for Putin. And if it takes place, will he attend?

The May 9 parade in Moscow is a key display of the Kremlin’s illusory grandeur. If this ritual is reduced, it signals that things are not going well.

Each year, the parade has served as a performance of the slogan "we can repeat it," and as an attempt by the Kremlin to monopolize the victory over Nazism in World War II. It has also been presented as a global event attended by world leaders. But this year, Putin may have the following company: the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia - Badra Gunba and Alan Gagloev. Robert Fico has said he does not plan to attend the parade in person.

Why might the parade not take place? Fear. Ukrainians have genuinely managed to scare Putin. Moreover, each year there is less and less for him to showcase - last year’s lone tank on Red Square is still fresh in memory.

The issue with the parade is a problem for Russian ideology. The sacredness of May 9 is being eroded. The regime has built its identity on the continuity between the "Great Victory" and the current war. If the ritual weakens, that link weakens as well.

Less "pride," more "fear." The regime’s two core emotions - pride and fear - are shifting in favor of fear. The narrative of control is also undermined: if even the capital operates under restrictions, the image of omnipotence and invincibility loses credibility.

There is also an external signal of isolation. A narrow circle of guests undermines the claim that "the world supports us."

I sincerely hope that May 9 on Red Square will be quiet and somber. Or, on the contrary - very, very loud.

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