A top Chinese economist explains why China’s GDP may be overestimated by 3%.

I don’t know who else could be as “clumsy” and stubborn as I am—I didn’t realize how much time and effort this “project” would take until I was already halfway through it.

Anyway, this exceptionally long speech was delivered by Gao Shanwen, Chief Economist at the state-owned SDIC Securities and a former adviser to Chinese policymakers, on December 3, 2024.

He analyzes the issue from four perspectives—China’s economic growth model, consumption data, employment figures, and a comparison between China’s real estate bubble and those in other countries—arguing that China’s GDP may be overestimated by 3%. His conclusion is highly persuasive.

Although many of his statements and conclusions are notably mild and tactfully worded—likely due to his position within China—the Chinese Communist authorities still found them unacceptable. Following this speech, he has been indefinitely silenced.

So cherish this—because it may well be his “last song.”