I have a million questions about prediction markets, and I understand things through drawing.

So I sat down with the CEO of @Kalshi (@mansourtarek_) to better understand how prediction markets actually work, the counter-intuitive impact of prediction markets on elections, and why he believes they can make the world a better place.

We cover:
- How a prediction market works (hint: a lot like the NYSE)
- 60¢ = 60%: how event contracts price probability
- Prediction markets vs. the stock exchange vs. sportsbooks
- Defining gambling and markets
- Why he's in favor of federal regulation
- Polls vs. markets: skin in the game & the pursuit of truth
- Why markets reward the boring take
- What you can't trade on (no wildfire markets)
- Hedging 101 at the ice cream shop
- Goku, growing up in Lebanon & the 120% rule

Highlights:
(00:00) Gambling, markets and their historically flirtatious relationship
(00:34) Opening Kalshi for the first time (01:19) How a contract works: 60¢ = 60% odds
(02:10) Why not just use the stock market? CFTC & derivatives (02:58) Prediction markets vs. sportsbooks: who sets the price (04:35) Where the gambling line is, according to Tarek
(05:30) In favor of federal regulation
(06:17) The vision: free markets in pursuit of truth
(06:39) Why polls miss & markets don't (2016, 2024, Mamdani) (07:24) Echo chambers, hot takes & rewarding the boring take (08:15) What you can't trade on & why
(08:54) Hedging 101 at the ice cream shop
(10:17) Goku, Lebanon & the 120% rule

Our first ever longform @chartsncrafts episode - the first of many.