Susie Wiles is out as White House Chief of Staff, replaced by Stephen Miller. Wiles will be moved to Trump's political operation. This suggests three things:

1. There will be no meaningful check on Trump's worst instincts.
   
   
2. Some of the most divisive policies of this administration will likely continue unabated and may grow more extreme.
   
   
3. Appointing Wiles to lead his political operation suggests that Trump hopes to anoint his successor and influence who becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.
   
   First, this suggests that Trump may not grasp the scale of America's repudiation of his policies in the midterm elections. Rather than reassessing those policies, he appears to be consolidating authority around someone closely associated with their implementation. Second, it could increase the likelihood that the next president of the United States will be a Democrat and that Democrats will gain more seats in the Senate and possibly the House in 2028.
   
   The problem with personalist leaders is that they tend to exist in an information bubble that reinforces their existing beliefs and filters out contradictory evidence. Three well-established mechanisms contribute to this phenomenon: preference falsification, in which subordinates conceal their genuine views to avoid displeasing the leader; motivated reasoning, in which information is interpreted to support existing beliefs; and information cascades, in which individuals adopt the prevailing position rather than independently evaluating the evidence. Together, these mechanisms can produce a profoundly distorted understanding of political reality, particularly in systems where personal loyalty is rewarded and dissent is discouraged.
   
   Thinking of Trump right now, I am reminded of the dictator in Gabriel García Márquez's The Autumn of the Patriarch, who becomes increasingly isolated from reality as his rule draws to an end. Surrounded by subordinates who reinforce his beliefs and conceal inconvenient truths, he gradually loses touch with the world around him, even as he continues to wield enormous power.